China's H2 GDP growth to quicken: DB

BY    2013-01-16 19:33:48

  BEIJING - Deustche Bank forecast on Monday that the annual growth of China's gross domestic product will quicken to 8.5 percent in the second half of 2013, boosted by improving corporate earnings and increasing government spending.

  Ma Jun, chief economist of DB China, voiced expectation that China's GDP growth will accelerate to 8 percent in the first six months and further pick up to 8.5 percent in the second half of the year.

  China's economy rose 7.4 percent in the third quarter of 2012, marking its lowest growth in more than three years and a slow-down for a seventh consecutive quarter. The country is scheduled to release fourth-quarter GDP and that for the whole of 2012 on Friday.

  "We believe the third quarter of 2012 was the trough for year-on-year GDP growth and a recovery was already under way in the fourth quarter," Ma said at an economic forum, noting that raw material prices and demand have recovered modestly in the past few months.

  He predicted the country will maintain a prudent monetary policy in the first three quarters of 2013, but moderately tighten it in the fourth quarter or in early 2014 in case of overheated economic growth and accelerating inflation.

  He also highlighted some risks that affected the growth forecast, including a stalemate on the United States' debt ceiling and geopolitical risks in the Middle East.

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